The security print industry is having to adjust as an increasingly digitalized world; reacting to new threats and positioning itself to capitalize on emergent commercial opportunities.
Smithers latest market report, ‘The Future of Global Security Printing to 2024’ forecasts the global security printing market value will increase from $29.5 billion in 2019 to $36 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.1%.
As the market transforms, demand for printed banknotes will increase, but the market must adjust to overcapacity and completion from non-cash payment.
The personal ID segment is having to react to the need for new printed solutions that can integrate online and mobile-based platforms. Simultaneously, new regulations and mandates are creating exciting future revenue streams in tax stamps and brand protection packaging.
In light of the COVID-19 crisis that continues creating economic uncertainty and loss in the business sector, the security printing industry will focus on managing risk and ensuring continued health.
Each business will need a deep understanding of changing market conditions and government policy. Because this industry supplies most of its offerings to government agencies around the world, participating organizations are potentially in a good position to avert some risk because they supply essential products and solutions to a lumpy but consistent pipeline. Further, their nearness to important decision-makers/policymakers could enable them to make timely and critical decisions with respect to business planning and commercial activities.
In the marketplace, quarantining and isolation broadly means reduced demand for passports and visas because of travel restrictions, less demand for tax stamps, product authentication and brand protection as consumers restrict their discretionary spend. There has been a noticeable uptick in the demand for banknotes as people hoard cash to be safe and many central banks plan on injecting more cash into their local cash cycles as a short-term shot in the arm.
In addition to the coronavirus pandemic, Smithers’ analysis for ‘The Future of Global Security Printing to 2024’ identifies the following key trends and drivers for the industry over the next five years:
The shift to polymer banknotes is progressing with over 20 countries and an increasing range of denominations are being issued. This shift will continue and counterfeits will increase, enabled by technology.
- A rise in card and mobile payments and a decline in cash purchasing is being seen in countries like Sweden. This will continue but will not be universal over the next five years;
- Multi-purpose ID/digital IDs are already growing within many countries. By 2024, this will be underpinned by developments in secure biometrics and driven by national and international programs and technology developments; this will impact the reduction of printed forms of ID;
- Automation at borders is already emerging, from ePassports to biometrics (face recognition); passports on chip cards are being developed linking to other IDs, such as driving licenses. Demand in digital documents will continue to rise to 2024;
- The EU Tobacco Products Directive/FCTC Protocol is already in progress and there will be market growth potential as other countries adapt to this;
- The shift from physical security print to platform approaches/software (blockchain, track and trace across the supply chain) continues as demand will increase and full system solutions will be prerequisites;
- Pharmaceutical serialization (EU and US – DSCA) will have a significant impact on suppliers and stakeholders. Other countries will look at adopting and will require full compliance for coding, reading, tracking and reporting;
- Tax stamp harmonization is currently in place through ISO and agreed standards. Standardization and compliance will progress; FCTC Protocol specifications will be rolled out to all approved signatory members.