Data Experts Share Super Bowl LIX Predictions through Lens of Next Gen Stats

The National Football League announced key predictions and matchups to watch during the Next Gen Stats Super Bowl LIX Preview, presented by Zebra Technologies, the NFL’s Official Real-Time Location Solutions Provider. A link to the Feb. 5 press conference recording can be found here.

• Matchup to Watch: The Chiefs Excellent Quick Game Faces Its Toughest Test
Patrick Mahomes has leaned into the quick game over his last four games, averaging a 2.50-second time to throw, more than a third of a second quicker than in Weeks 1-15 (2.87 seconds).

Mahomes led the NFL in both completion percentage (83.6%) and success rate (60.9%) on quick passes during the regular season, his fourth season of his career eclipsing a 60% success rate. Only five other quarterbacks have reached that mark on quick passes in a season during the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016). Matchup: The Eagles allowed the fewest yards per attempt (5.5) against quick passes this season while facing the third-quickest time to throw overall (2.69 seconds).

• Matchup to Watch: A.J. Brown vs. the Chiefs Press Coverage
A.J. Brown recorded a 37.3% target rate and averaged 3.5 yards per route when facing press coverage (less than 3 yards of cushion) this season, both of which are the highest marks among receivers with at least 100 routes against press.

Matchup: The Chiefs defense aligned their outside cornerbacks in press on 51.5% of snaps this season, the highest rate in the NFL. In Super Bowl LVII, Brown faced press 18 times, tied for his most routes vs. press in a game since joining the Eagles in 2022 (including playoffs). Brown was targeted five times on those 18 routes, totaling 92 yards and a touchdown.

Since 2015, Zebra’s RFID solution has fueled the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, which provides insights about individual and team performances. In addition to tracking every football, Zebra MotionWorks tracking solution leverages RFID technology to capture the real-time location data, speed, acceleration and other metrics of every player for every play on every inch of the football field.

“RFID is at the center of our football technology integration,” said Troy Vincent, Sr., EVP, NFL Football Operations. “The evolution of the data has exponentially expedited improvements in game-day experiences and our ability to measure player performance. The data also provides a greater understanding of the entire football ecosystem, benefitting players, coaches, officials, broadcasters and fans.”

Sensors throughout each NFL stadium track RFID tags placed in the footballs and players’ shoulder pads, charting individual movements within inches. Enhancing the fan experience on game broadcasts and in stadiums, the data is utilized by coaches to prepare for games, the league office to study the impact of rule changes, and in many other ways around the NFL.

“We are proud of our work with the NFL over the past decade to provide the League, teams and fans with data that takes them inside the game,” said Joe White, chief product and solutions officer. “As a global leader in location solutions, we provide similar real-time insights and solutions retailers, manufacturers, healthcare providers, and transportation and logistics companies to help improve their operational visibility and the ultimate performance of their frontlines.”

• What to Watch for When the Chiefs Have the Ball
The Chiefs enter the Super Bowl having won an NFL-record 17 straight one possession games. While the Chiefs recorded the sixth-most offensive plays (1128) this season, they had just 169 total possessions, tied for the second-fewest in the NFL. Key to the Chiefs ability to sustain long drives is Patrick Mahomes’ ability on third and long to extend plays and push the ball past the sticks, a skill that he has maintained his entire career.

• What to Watch for When the Eagles Have the Ball
The Eagles will look to establish the run as they have all season long, especially if they can maintain a lead. They were the only offense to call a run play on the majority of their plays this season. The Eagles will aim to build up an early lead and then allow Saquon Barkley to close out the game behind their mauling offensive line. If the Chiefs can force the Eagles into a negative game script, that could spell trouble for Jalen Hurts as the Chiefs generated 58 unblocked pressures this season, third-most in the NFL.