David Savastano, Editor10.03.22
The Asia-Pacific region is the largest market for printing ink manufacturing, with Ink World estimating sales at $8 billion annually. Three of the top 10 ink manufacturers – DIC Corporation, Sakata INX, and T&K Toka – are headquartered in Japan. Practically all of the top 10 companies have operations in China, India and throughout the region.
In speaking with ink industry leaders, it is clear that they expect that growth will continue in the region.
Ashish Pradhan, president of Siegwerk Asia, reported that the printing markets, especially related to packaging, are doing quite well from a demand perspective. Pradhan noted that India is still Siegwerk’s biggest and fastest growing market in the region, while Indonesia and Vietnam are growing right now.
“Overall, we see a robust demand in most Asian countries, returning to or even exceeding pre-COVID levels,” Pradhan observed. “Although the overall supply chain challenges have reduced and settled down, we continue to struggle with high input costs. In the printing and ink markets, it has generally been challenging to pass on the increasing input costs to customers throughout 2021-2022, and it still is today.”
Pradhan added that commercial printing markets have not revived so well, with many actually shrinking post-COVID.
“The printing and ink markets further shifted towards food safety and circular economy topics,” added Pradhan. “As a result of the paperization trend, printing on paper is increasing, which further drives the need for different ink systems. When you look at the product safety and regulatory or food safety perspective, this implies inks that are amongst others mineral oil-free, toluene-free or benzophenone-free.”
Masamichi Sota, managing executive officer, president of Packaging & Graphic Business Group and GM of Printing Material Products Division, DIC Corporation, observed that market conditions continue to vary by country.
“However, most countries, including India and China, are experiencing increased prices for raw materials, utilities and logistics,” Sota added. “The ongoing war in Ukraine has further exacerbated these price increases. Given the conditions mentioned above, regional printing and ink industries have yet to return to pre-pandemic levels.”
“In all countries, package printing is growing solidly, and the growth of the power-saving UV market is noticeable,” said Hirofumi Ozaki, department manager, Overseas Department for T&K Toka. “Business is recovering well, although not to pre-pandemic levels in each country.”
Katsuya Tanaka, GM of the International Operations Department for Sakata INX, noted that many countries in the region began to show a recovery in economic activities from the stagnation due to the COVID pandemic.
“The market as a whole has been growing with recovery in demand, mainly for packaging inks,” added Tanaka. “As far as we are concerned, the sales volume of packaging inks is increasing at a higher level than pre-pandemic in most regions. Sales of packaging inks were not initially significantly affected by the pandemic, except for the impact of the lockdown. Instead, there were many cases where our packaging inks business performed steadily due to stay-at-home demand.
“On the other hand, commercial printing ink sales were sluggish,” Tanaka continued. “This was due to a decline in the opportunities of various events and advertisements by restrictions placed on economic activities. Digitalization also progressed further, triggered by the pandemic. Although there appears to be a recovery of commercial printing ink sales with the resumption of economic activities, it has not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels.”
“China remains very strict with its control of the pandemic; from time to time, cities have been locked down due to minor outbreaks,” said Lina Gu, GM, Flint Group China & Southeast Asia. “As a result, economic growth has slowed.
“International tourism began to pick up within Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia. However, with inflation at 3.1% and driving an increase in the cost of living, spending has shifted where consumers focus on basic needs such as food, beverages and pharmaceuticals,” Gu added.
“In Southeast Asia, food packaging printing is faring well, especially for boxes, trays, cups, cartons, flexible packaging, and wrap-around sleeves. Health and personal care markets are affected by a change in buying behavior,” Gu said. “In China, due to the instability of the pandemic, outdoor activities have been greatly reduced and controlled, which has affected the demand of the packaging market. Consequentially, this slowdown of economic growth is affecting consumers’ confidence. We see food, aseptic and pharmaceutical packaging as the strongest growth markets.”
Ozaki said that T&K Toka has a particular focus on Vietnam.
“India, Indonesia and Vietnam are the strongest growth markets in the region, with large populations and relatively stable economies, particularly for packaging inks,” said Tanaka.
Jose Novo, key account manager, International Business Department, Marketing Division at Toyo Ink Co., Ltd., reported that while printing ink markets are shrinking in advanced countries as information becomes digitalized, growth in emerging markets remains promising.
“Factors such as changing lifestyles and the rise in e-commerce and urbanization are driving the growth of the printing and ink markets in the region,” Novo noted. “The consumption of inks for food packaging and labels is growing worldwide.
“Toyo Ink sales of environmentally friendly packaging inks such as water-based inks for flexible packaging grew in India, Korea and Taiwan and those of middle grade items expanded in Southeast Asia and India, aided by capital investments,” added Novo. “However, the surge in raw material prices had a significant impact.
“We expect the demand for flexible packaging to return to pre-pandemic levels, but primarily for renewable materials and sustainable packaging,” said Novo. “COVID-19 accelerated the shrinking of the commercial printing market, as the world moved to adopt digital technologies and digital platforms.”
“The market remains quiet, and the sales performance is still far different from the time before the pandemic,” Yip’s spokesperson added. “As gravure inks are mainly used in beverage and food packaging, its demand has been stronger than other inks products. In addition, due to its excellent printing and environmental protection properties, the market demand for UV inks is also growing.”
Hangzhou Toka Ink, T&K Toka’s joint venture in China, is one of the largest ink producers in the country.
“Due to the volume of the market, the impact of the pandemic has been significant, and although there is a recovery trend, a full recovery is expected to take some time,” Ozaki said.
“In China, the lockdown in Shanghai - which took effect from the end of last February - forced our Shanghai plant to cease operations for two months,” Tanaka observed. “Although our plants in Maoming and Zhongshan in Guangdong Province were conducting production activities as usual, the demand for printing inks as a whole declined. This was due to the operational shutdown by customers in Shanghai, as well as economic deterioration in the major consumer areas of Beijing and Shanghai. As a result of these factors, sales in China declined significantly in the first half of 2022.”
“In China, we particularly suffered from the COVID lockdown in Shanghai. Now that the lockdown has ended, we are slowly but surely recovering our growth momentum,” Pradhan said.
Tianjin Toyo Ink Co., Ltd., Toyo Ink’s subsidiary in China, is among the largest ink manufacturers in China. Novo said that in regard to the Chinese market, packaging ink sales were weak due to lockdowns.
“Printing and Information results from China were also weak due to the Ukraine conflict and the impact from lockdowns,” Novo added. “A new plant and the expanded lines commenced operations in China (Jiangmen) and India, respectively. Demand for inks for food packaging and labels is growing worldwide, and we’re receiving more questions on value-added UV-curable inks and eco-friendly biomass inks in China.”
“Flint Group China is performing well in packaging markets and, despite various challenges, we have fared quite well versus last year, specifically doing well in food packaging applications,” said Gu. “Flint Group Southeast Asia is seeing high demand, especially for food packaging.”
“Raw material prices are expected to rise further due to the situation in Ukraine and the weak Japanese yen,” Ozaki said. “The impact on ink prices is expected to continue, as not only raw materials but also logistics costs, packaging materials and production energy continue to rise.”
“Raw material prices are trending downwards due to sluggish market demand in the first half of 2022,” Yip’s Chemical’s spokesperson noted. “The transportation issues caused by the pandemic didn’t have significant impact on Bauhinia Ink. Thanks to the close cooperation among our teams, the two plants of Bauhinia Ink in South China and East China could play a synergistic effect, complementing each other in production in order to meet customer needs. It helps boost customers’ confidence and loyalty in us.”
“Raw material supply and transportations issues are stabilizing compared to what they were during the pandemic,” Tanaka said. “However, costs for raw materials, transportation and utilities are rising due to soaring crude oil prices that is putting significant pressure on profits. Therefore, we are continuing to implement sales price revisions.”
“Transportation issues are clearly stabilizing as are the costs,” said Pradhan. “Raw material supply chain disruptions are less frequent, while more and more capacities are coming on stream. We also see some relief in raw materials, not much, but a little. If the trend continues, raw material prices could decline again, especially for solvents.”
“Conditions are likely to remain harsh into the second half of FY2022 with respect to raw material prices,” said Novo. “We continue to be impacted by a supply shortage of raw materials due to the Ukraine situation and rising prices of imported raw materials linked to the weakening of the yen.”
“We have noticed that upstream raw material prices have started to fall, some of them sharply,” Gu reported. “However, international transportation is not yet improving as fewer ships are available, with additional stops and longer port wait times due to the COVID pandemic lay-offs.”
“Conditions vary by country, however, generally speaking, European raw material markets continue to worsen in Asia,” said Sota. “A few materials are in short supply, and obtaining vessels remains difficult in some areas.”
Pradhan said that there is a lot of talk about strengthening regulations, but not enough action on the ground because there is not enough clarity from regulatory on what needs to be done from an ink perspective.
“Plastic is being banned, which means that printers have to move to other substrates like paper going forward,” added Pradhan. “Besides, there is an increasing shift from multi-polymer laminates to monopoly laminates, which also helps in this respect. All these changes in turn have an impact on inks and printing processes. The driving forces are mainly individual brand owners and, in some cases, certain regulations that are already in place.”
“As well as registering ink raw materials in the inventories of various countries, even those destined for domestic Asian markets are required to comply with European and US laws and regulations, as the final products are destined for export to Europe and the US,” Ozaki observed.
“Environmental policies in Mainland China are on its momentum, and under such market conditions, relevant measures in the industry are running and advancing smoothly,” Yip’s
spokesperson reported.
“The regulations on chemical substances and related products have been continuously revised and strengthened,” said Tanaka.
Toyo Ink’s Novo said there is movement in that direction in many countries in the region, in particular in packaging waste treatment.
“Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) systems are starting to be implemented in several countries in Southeast Asia,” said Novo. “This trend is pushing packaging - including the inks used - to be more environmentally friendly. In many cases, we’re seeing a strong focus on mechanical recycling of the packaging and the reduction of plastic usage. In accordance to that, there is increasing interest in inks and coatings for paper packaging from our customers.”
“We see growing consumer consciousness around reducing plastics and CO2 emissions in most countries,” Sota said. “However, despite the Indian government’s announced ban on the use of toluene inks for food packaging last year, after a brief period of compliance, many converters have resumed their use of toluene inks due to the higher prices of non-toluene ink products. We are seeing the same trend in some southeast Asian countries.”
“Environmental regulations have not been strengthened due to a lack of legislation from the country leaders in the Southeast Asia region,” Gu said. “However, some drive is coming directly from brand owner groups. In China, policies and regulations on food safety and plastic reduction continue to strengthen, driving the growth of water-based inks and functional layers.”
“While commercial/publishing printing is shrinking due to the impact of global digitalization, packaging printing is holding up well,” said Ozaki.
“In response to the global trend on environmental protection and clients’ expectation, we will continue to promote water-based inks products and other eco-friendly inks products,” Yip’s spokesperson said.
“Even though rapid growth like before is no longer expected, those industries are expected to continue expanding in line with population growth and economic growth, particularly for packaging inks,” said Tanaka.
Pradhan sees packaging as the key to the ink industry’s growth in the region.
“In Asia, the per capita consumption of packaging is still pretty low compared to the developed economies,” said Pradhan. “Together with a further growing population, there is enough headroom for printing and packaging and associated inks to grow. We are also not seeing any recessionary trends yet, as most Asian countries are still growing. Although China is the only country where growth is slowing down, it is still growing.”
“Geographically, the Toyo Ink Group is devoting most of its resources to growing markets in Southeast Asia and India in anticipation for further growth in sales in these strategic markets,” said Novo. “In the packaging material business, the Group will accelerate its marketing of products in response to environmental trends such as high-grade biomass inks, water-based printing solutions and materials to help reduce plastic waste. We are also working to stabilize the operations of new factories in China and India to boost their contributions to earnings, and to expand sales of strategic products in Southeast Asia and India, areas where we are looking to increase our market share.”
“We anticipate the return of pre-pandemic volumes in 2023; however, the effects of COVID infections and the ongoing war in Ukraine continue to muddy our forecasts,” said Sota.
“For China, market demand decreased in the first half of 2022, and the year’s second half looks similar,” Gu noted. “The government is actively stimulating domestic demand, but the recovery of consumer confidence depends on the development of quarantine policies. We believe the situation will stabilize in 2023. For Southeast Asia, we believe that 2023 will have a steady economic recovery.”
In speaking with ink industry leaders, it is clear that they expect that growth will continue in the region.
Ashish Pradhan, president of Siegwerk Asia, reported that the printing markets, especially related to packaging, are doing quite well from a demand perspective. Pradhan noted that India is still Siegwerk’s biggest and fastest growing market in the region, while Indonesia and Vietnam are growing right now.
“Overall, we see a robust demand in most Asian countries, returning to or even exceeding pre-COVID levels,” Pradhan observed. “Although the overall supply chain challenges have reduced and settled down, we continue to struggle with high input costs. In the printing and ink markets, it has generally been challenging to pass on the increasing input costs to customers throughout 2021-2022, and it still is today.”
Pradhan added that commercial printing markets have not revived so well, with many actually shrinking post-COVID.
“The printing and ink markets further shifted towards food safety and circular economy topics,” added Pradhan. “As a result of the paperization trend, printing on paper is increasing, which further drives the need for different ink systems. When you look at the product safety and regulatory or food safety perspective, this implies inks that are amongst others mineral oil-free, toluene-free or benzophenone-free.”
Masamichi Sota, managing executive officer, president of Packaging & Graphic Business Group and GM of Printing Material Products Division, DIC Corporation, observed that market conditions continue to vary by country.
“However, most countries, including India and China, are experiencing increased prices for raw materials, utilities and logistics,” Sota added. “The ongoing war in Ukraine has further exacerbated these price increases. Given the conditions mentioned above, regional printing and ink industries have yet to return to pre-pandemic levels.”
“In all countries, package printing is growing solidly, and the growth of the power-saving UV market is noticeable,” said Hirofumi Ozaki, department manager, Overseas Department for T&K Toka. “Business is recovering well, although not to pre-pandemic levels in each country.”
Katsuya Tanaka, GM of the International Operations Department for Sakata INX, noted that many countries in the region began to show a recovery in economic activities from the stagnation due to the COVID pandemic.
“The market as a whole has been growing with recovery in demand, mainly for packaging inks,” added Tanaka. “As far as we are concerned, the sales volume of packaging inks is increasing at a higher level than pre-pandemic in most regions. Sales of packaging inks were not initially significantly affected by the pandemic, except for the impact of the lockdown. Instead, there were many cases where our packaging inks business performed steadily due to stay-at-home demand.
“On the other hand, commercial printing ink sales were sluggish,” Tanaka continued. “This was due to a decline in the opportunities of various events and advertisements by restrictions placed on economic activities. Digitalization also progressed further, triggered by the pandemic. Although there appears to be a recovery of commercial printing ink sales with the resumption of economic activities, it has not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels.”
“China remains very strict with its control of the pandemic; from time to time, cities have been locked down due to minor outbreaks,” said Lina Gu, GM, Flint Group China & Southeast Asia. “As a result, economic growth has slowed.
“International tourism began to pick up within Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia. However, with inflation at 3.1% and driving an increase in the cost of living, spending has shifted where consumers focus on basic needs such as food, beverages and pharmaceuticals,” Gu added.
“In Southeast Asia, food packaging printing is faring well, especially for boxes, trays, cups, cartons, flexible packaging, and wrap-around sleeves. Health and personal care markets are affected by a change in buying behavior,” Gu said. “In China, due to the instability of the pandemic, outdoor activities have been greatly reduced and controlled, which has affected the demand of the packaging market. Consequentially, this slowdown of economic growth is affecting consumers’ confidence. We see food, aseptic and pharmaceutical packaging as the strongest growth markets.”
Ozaki said that T&K Toka has a particular focus on Vietnam.
“India, Indonesia and Vietnam are the strongest growth markets in the region, with large populations and relatively stable economies, particularly for packaging inks,” said Tanaka.
Jose Novo, key account manager, International Business Department, Marketing Division at Toyo Ink Co., Ltd., reported that while printing ink markets are shrinking in advanced countries as information becomes digitalized, growth in emerging markets remains promising.
“Factors such as changing lifestyles and the rise in e-commerce and urbanization are driving the growth of the printing and ink markets in the region,” Novo noted. “The consumption of inks for food packaging and labels is growing worldwide.
“Toyo Ink sales of environmentally friendly packaging inks such as water-based inks for flexible packaging grew in India, Korea and Taiwan and those of middle grade items expanded in Southeast Asia and India, aided by capital investments,” added Novo. “However, the surge in raw material prices had a significant impact.
“We expect the demand for flexible packaging to return to pre-pandemic levels, but primarily for renewable materials and sustainable packaging,” said Novo. “COVID-19 accelerated the shrinking of the commercial printing market, as the world moved to adopt digital technologies and digital platforms.”
China
China is the biggest user of ink in the Asia-Pacific region, and Bauhinia Ink Company Limited, the ink subsidiary of Yip’s Chemical Holdings Limited, is the largest domestic producer of inks in China. Yip’s Chemical’s spokesperson noted that the ink market was mainly affected by the pandemic in the first half of 2022, but the demand has gradually picked up since August.“The market remains quiet, and the sales performance is still far different from the time before the pandemic,” Yip’s spokesperson added. “As gravure inks are mainly used in beverage and food packaging, its demand has been stronger than other inks products. In addition, due to its excellent printing and environmental protection properties, the market demand for UV inks is also growing.”
Hangzhou Toka Ink, T&K Toka’s joint venture in China, is one of the largest ink producers in the country.
“Due to the volume of the market, the impact of the pandemic has been significant, and although there is a recovery trend, a full recovery is expected to take some time,” Ozaki said.
“In China, the lockdown in Shanghai - which took effect from the end of last February - forced our Shanghai plant to cease operations for two months,” Tanaka observed. “Although our plants in Maoming and Zhongshan in Guangdong Province were conducting production activities as usual, the demand for printing inks as a whole declined. This was due to the operational shutdown by customers in Shanghai, as well as economic deterioration in the major consumer areas of Beijing and Shanghai. As a result of these factors, sales in China declined significantly in the first half of 2022.”
“In China, we particularly suffered from the COVID lockdown in Shanghai. Now that the lockdown has ended, we are slowly but surely recovering our growth momentum,” Pradhan said.
Tianjin Toyo Ink Co., Ltd., Toyo Ink’s subsidiary in China, is among the largest ink manufacturers in China. Novo said that in regard to the Chinese market, packaging ink sales were weak due to lockdowns.
“Printing and Information results from China were also weak due to the Ukraine conflict and the impact from lockdowns,” Novo added. “A new plant and the expanded lines commenced operations in China (Jiangmen) and India, respectively. Demand for inks for food packaging and labels is growing worldwide, and we’re receiving more questions on value-added UV-curable inks and eco-friendly biomass inks in China.”
“Flint Group China is performing well in packaging markets and, despite various challenges, we have fared quite well versus last year, specifically doing well in food packaging applications,” said Gu. “Flint Group Southeast Asia is seeing high demand, especially for food packaging.”
Raw Materials
Raw materials are an issue globally, and the Asia-Pacific region is no exception.“Raw material prices are expected to rise further due to the situation in Ukraine and the weak Japanese yen,” Ozaki said. “The impact on ink prices is expected to continue, as not only raw materials but also logistics costs, packaging materials and production energy continue to rise.”
“Raw material prices are trending downwards due to sluggish market demand in the first half of 2022,” Yip’s Chemical’s spokesperson noted. “The transportation issues caused by the pandemic didn’t have significant impact on Bauhinia Ink. Thanks to the close cooperation among our teams, the two plants of Bauhinia Ink in South China and East China could play a synergistic effect, complementing each other in production in order to meet customer needs. It helps boost customers’ confidence and loyalty in us.”
“Raw material supply and transportations issues are stabilizing compared to what they were during the pandemic,” Tanaka said. “However, costs for raw materials, transportation and utilities are rising due to soaring crude oil prices that is putting significant pressure on profits. Therefore, we are continuing to implement sales price revisions.”
“Transportation issues are clearly stabilizing as are the costs,” said Pradhan. “Raw material supply chain disruptions are less frequent, while more and more capacities are coming on stream. We also see some relief in raw materials, not much, but a little. If the trend continues, raw material prices could decline again, especially for solvents.”
“Conditions are likely to remain harsh into the second half of FY2022 with respect to raw material prices,” said Novo. “We continue to be impacted by a supply shortage of raw materials due to the Ukraine situation and rising prices of imported raw materials linked to the weakening of the yen.”
“We have noticed that upstream raw material prices have started to fall, some of them sharply,” Gu reported. “However, international transportation is not yet improving as fewer ships are available, with additional stops and longer port wait times due to the COVID pandemic lay-offs.”
“Conditions vary by country, however, generally speaking, European raw material markets continue to worsen in Asia,” said Sota. “A few materials are in short supply, and obtaining vessels remains difficult in some areas.”
Environmental Regulations
Environmental regulations for printing and inks are being strengthened worldwide. Asia-Pacific is similarly strengthening their regulations as well.Pradhan said that there is a lot of talk about strengthening regulations, but not enough action on the ground because there is not enough clarity from regulatory on what needs to be done from an ink perspective.
“Plastic is being banned, which means that printers have to move to other substrates like paper going forward,” added Pradhan. “Besides, there is an increasing shift from multi-polymer laminates to monopoly laminates, which also helps in this respect. All these changes in turn have an impact on inks and printing processes. The driving forces are mainly individual brand owners and, in some cases, certain regulations that are already in place.”
“As well as registering ink raw materials in the inventories of various countries, even those destined for domestic Asian markets are required to comply with European and US laws and regulations, as the final products are destined for export to Europe and the US,” Ozaki observed.
“Environmental policies in Mainland China are on its momentum, and under such market conditions, relevant measures in the industry are running and advancing smoothly,” Yip’s
spokesperson reported.
“The regulations on chemical substances and related products have been continuously revised and strengthened,” said Tanaka.
Toyo Ink’s Novo said there is movement in that direction in many countries in the region, in particular in packaging waste treatment.
“Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) systems are starting to be implemented in several countries in Southeast Asia,” said Novo. “This trend is pushing packaging - including the inks used - to be more environmentally friendly. In many cases, we’re seeing a strong focus on mechanical recycling of the packaging and the reduction of plastic usage. In accordance to that, there is increasing interest in inks and coatings for paper packaging from our customers.”
“We see growing consumer consciousness around reducing plastics and CO2 emissions in most countries,” Sota said. “However, despite the Indian government’s announced ban on the use of toluene inks for food packaging last year, after a brief period of compliance, many converters have resumed their use of toluene inks due to the higher prices of non-toluene ink products. We are seeing the same trend in some southeast Asian countries.”
“Environmental regulations have not been strengthened due to a lack of legislation from the country leaders in the Southeast Asia region,” Gu said. “However, some drive is coming directly from brand owner groups. In China, policies and regulations on food safety and plastic reduction continue to strengthen, driving the growth of water-based inks and functional layers.”
Outlook for the Region
Overall, ink industry leaders see a lot of potential for further growth in the region.“While commercial/publishing printing is shrinking due to the impact of global digitalization, packaging printing is holding up well,” said Ozaki.
“In response to the global trend on environmental protection and clients’ expectation, we will continue to promote water-based inks products and other eco-friendly inks products,” Yip’s spokesperson said.
“Even though rapid growth like before is no longer expected, those industries are expected to continue expanding in line with population growth and economic growth, particularly for packaging inks,” said Tanaka.
Pradhan sees packaging as the key to the ink industry’s growth in the region.
“In Asia, the per capita consumption of packaging is still pretty low compared to the developed economies,” said Pradhan. “Together with a further growing population, there is enough headroom for printing and packaging and associated inks to grow. We are also not seeing any recessionary trends yet, as most Asian countries are still growing. Although China is the only country where growth is slowing down, it is still growing.”
“Geographically, the Toyo Ink Group is devoting most of its resources to growing markets in Southeast Asia and India in anticipation for further growth in sales in these strategic markets,” said Novo. “In the packaging material business, the Group will accelerate its marketing of products in response to environmental trends such as high-grade biomass inks, water-based printing solutions and materials to help reduce plastic waste. We are also working to stabilize the operations of new factories in China and India to boost their contributions to earnings, and to expand sales of strategic products in Southeast Asia and India, areas where we are looking to increase our market share.”
“We anticipate the return of pre-pandemic volumes in 2023; however, the effects of COVID infections and the ongoing war in Ukraine continue to muddy our forecasts,” said Sota.
“For China, market demand decreased in the first half of 2022, and the year’s second half looks similar,” Gu noted. “The government is actively stimulating domestic demand, but the recovery of consumer confidence depends on the development of quarantine policies. We believe the situation will stabilize in 2023. For Southeast Asia, we believe that 2023 will have a steady economic recovery.”